When $5 Billion in Ether Options Expire, Could $5K ETH Be Next?

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Ether’s latest weekly options expiry has sent ripples across the market—$5 billion worth of contracts are set to expire on Friday, and bullish bets are leading the charge. Does this signal the next leg of ETH’s rally heading straight toward the $5,000 mark?

Let’s break it down.

1. The Bulls Hold the Upper Hand

With ETH up roughly 22% over the past month, bullish strategies outnumber bearish ones by a wide margin. That puts optimistic traders in a strong position heading into this critical expiry.

2. Bears Were Caught Off Guard

Most bearish bets were placed below $4,600, opening them up to significant losses when ETH climbed higher in August. In contrast, long (call) options are centered at $4,400–$4,500, giving bulls a distinct edge.

3. Open Interest Paints a Clear Picture

According to Deribit data:

  • $4,050–$4,350: $820M in calls vs. $260M in puts → bulls +$560M

  • $4,350–$4,550: $1.05B calls vs. $140M puts → bulls +$915M

  • $4,550–$4,850: $1.4B calls vs. $45M puts → bulls +$1.35B

  • $4,850–$5,200: $1.82B calls vs. just $2M puts → bulls +$1.8B 

These numbers highlight a massive bullish skew—traders have heavily committed to profit if ETH heads toward $5K.

4. Macros Still Matter

Even with a bullish setup, broader market trends remain crucial. Traders are watching Nvidia’s (NVDA) upcoming earnings, given Ether’s notable correlation to the S&P 500—at times exceeding 80%. Global risk sentiment and economic developments could either fuel or dampen ETH’s rally.

What Lies Ahead

If bulls hold their ground and expiry plays out favorably, a rally to $5,000 becomes very plausible in the coming weeks. But none of this happens in isolation—crypto remains intertwined with equities and macro momentum.

In Short

  • Bulls dominate Friday’s $5 billion expiry with overwhelming call exposure.

  • 🐻 Bears are largely underwater, having placed bets below $4,600.

  • Macroeconomic and equity cues, especially from Nvidia and broader market sentiment, will likely influence the next moves.

If today's expiry unfolds as the data suggests, ETH could be charting its path toward a formidable $5K milestone.

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