Introduction
A fleeting surge in Bitcoin’s price at the Jackson Hole summit offered a breath of relief—but it didn’t last. As rallies fade, it’s clear that $105,000 has emerged as a pivotal zone: the final bulwark of support before potential downturns. Let’s break down what’s unfolding, why it matters, and how different holder groups are influencing the market.
1. The Rush—and the Retreat
A dovish tone at Jackson Hole sparked a powerful 3.9% leap in Bitcoin from roughly $111,700 to $117,300—marking its most aggressive daily rally since July 10.
Yet, that momentum quickly dissipated—Bitcoin slipped to around $110,600 by Monday, forming a bearish weekly engulfing candle that signals rising downward pressure.
2. On-Chain Signals: Who’s Selling—and Where
On-chain analysis reveals a coordinated selling spree across various wallet sizes:
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10–100 BTC wallets have switched to net sellers after peaking near $118K.
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1–10 BTC wallets are buying again under $107K.
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Large holders (1,000+ BTC) are steadily distributing.
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The 100–1,000 BTC group is teetering—some accumulating, others selling—around $105K, making it the critical support battlefield.
3. Realized Cost vs. Market Price: Who’s Profitable?
Realized price data paints a telling picture:
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1–3 month holders: ~$111,900 (newer buyers, closer to the peak)
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3–6 month holders: ~$91,630
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6–12 month holders: ~$89,200 (longer-term holders with lower cost basis)
This wide gap indicates that short-term buyers are facing steep pressure if prices drop, while long-term holders remain structurally profitable.
4. The Danger of Losing $105K
If Bitcoin plunges below $105K, there’s sparse cost-based support between that zone and the $90K mark. That vacuum could trigger a cascade of capitulation, pushing prices potentially toward the $92,000–$89,000 demand zone.
5. Seasonal Headwinds and ETF Decay
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Seasonality: Historically, August–September tends to be weak for Bitcoin, particularly due to Asia’s “ghost month” from August 23–September 21. Since 2017, this period has seen average drops of ~21.7%, with steep declines like -39.8% (2017) and -23% (2021).
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ETF fatigue: Initial excitement around spot Bitcoin ETFs may be fading. Analysts, including Roman Trading, point out that BTC/EUR hasn’t hit fresh highs—suggesting that current gains are fueled more by dollar weakness than fundamental demand. This mirrors past distribution phases tied to ETF-driven rallies.
TL;DR: Key Insights
| Factor | Implication |
|---|---|
| $105K support zone | The battleground between buyers and sellers—if it breaks, steep slide possible |
| On-chain behavior | Mid-size and large holders selling; only smaller wallets still accumulating modestly |
| Profit distribution gap | Short-term buyers face pressure; long-term holders remain confident |
| Seasonal and ETF risks | Adds downward bias—August–September historically weak; ETF hype may be wearing off |
Why It Matters to You
Understanding these dynamics equips you to interpret Bitcoin’s price moves more insightfully and set more realistic expectations. This isn’t just market noise—it’s a complex interplay of sentiment, history, and strategy.
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